Intensive maintenance of multiple sets of devices
PTA ushered in obvious price support
Recently, under the stabilization of crude oil rebound, PTA still fell sharply, 2201 contract fell to the lowest 4736 yuan/ton, resulting in the production end of the profit was severely squeezed, the whole PTA industry is facing a large loss situation. Historically, this situation is unsustainable. And recently, the PTA end of the positive news frequency, superimposed in September and October upstream maintenance increase and supply and demand structure ushered in the improvement, PTA is expected to usher in a rebound.
With the restart of Zhongtai and Sanfangxiang devices last week, THE PTA load recovered from the low level to the neutral level, but from September to November, the PRODUCTION end of PTA will again meet the centralized overhaul, including hengli, Yisheng, Tongkun, Honggang and Fujian Baihong and other enterprises overhaul total production capacity of more than 10 million tons. In late September, Liaoyang petrochemical 280,000 tons of line maintenance for 10 days, at the end of September hengli petrochemical a 2.25 million tons of line will be overhaul, Fujia Petrochemical will overhaul 1.4 million tons of line in early October for 45 days. As Hengli Line 5 will be overhauled on October 8, Line 3 will be overhauled in late October, and 1.5 million tons of Honggang Petrochemical will be overhauled in October, the supply side contraction is expected to be more intense. As an industry with relatively high industry concentration, this move will have an obvious support effect on PTA price.
Polyester filament filament device to reduce production
There are signs of stabilization in the polyester end
Compared with the early polyester to maintain the opening probability of 90%, the recent polyester opening probability fell to 84% and rebounded to 87%, the main reason for the decline of polyester opening probability is at the filament end, in August manufacturers reached a consensus to limit production, resulting in a decrease in the opening probability of filament. With the week promotion volume, nearly two weeks of filament inventory margin decline. Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving operating rate and Jiangsu and Zhejiang elastic operating rate after experiencing a substantial decline, the recent stability.
Relevant data show that the price of polyester end seems to have stabilized, from the recent promotion, promotion reduced 200-400 yuan, and there has been a callback in recent days. On The 14th, under the background of national dual control, there was frequent news of production reduction, shenghong's Spring Festival equipment overhaul plan, Huaya's negative reduction of 2-3 percent, sanfang Lane stop of a filament device, etc., which boosted the market atmosphere. Supply side reduction stack of raw material end of the atmosphere is warm, polyester filament zhejiang several large factories announced FDY up 100 measures. That is to say, in spite of the promotion, but in the recent time, the price of polyester filament is still volatile operation tends to be stable, there has been no significant change. As a result, the polyester promotion did not have much impact on future prices.
At present, polyester load remains near 87.7%. After early promotion and production reduction, polyester factory inventory pressure has been alleviated to a certain extent, and the inventory of conventional products has declined for two consecutive weeks. At present, the inventory of POY, DTY and FDY is 13.4 days, 24.5 days and 23.6 days.
Early affected by the sea freight surge, foreign trade orders have overdrawn in advance. Recently, it is understood that the domestic market orders have signs of improvement, part of the winter orders gradually issued, the end of September is still expected to peak season, the second half of the year will be based on domestic demand, market consumer demand is worth looking forward to. However, considering that polyester profits have not significantly improved, high sea freight breaks the order rhythm of previous years, and consumption reduction caused by the epidemic is still in the wake, the continuity of polyester production and sales needs more downstream data to confirm each other.
source: Hua Xian Tou Tiao
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