Wang Youxin, a senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, believes that the central bank has recently lowered the medium-term lending facility and the loan market quotation rate (LPR). The trend of monetary policy between China and the United States has continued to diverge, and has also brought some disturbances to short-term cross-border capital flows and exchange rates.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said that from the economic point of view, China's economy has been affected by factors beyond expectations this year, and the economic growth has seen a large correction, which has also formed a certain impact on the trend of the RMB. In the second half of the year, the strength of economic recovery was relatively weak. In July and August, the PMI returned to below the 50% watershed again, and only in June it returned to above 50%. This shows that the foundation of economic recovery is still weak and cannot be taken lightly. The depreciation of RMB will have a certain impact on China's import and export trade. Generally speaking, the depreciation of RMB will be beneficial to export trade, but if the depreciation is large, it may affect the confidence of overseas investors. From the macro-economic perspective, the current economy is in the stage of slow recovery after hitting the bottom. Although the recovery is not strong, the trend of recovery has gradually taken shape.
As a big textile exporter, what impact will the devaluation of RMB have on textile enterprises?
A few days ago, Vosges, a leading domestic textile enterprise, said in response to investors' inquiries that the devaluation of RMB is conducive to the company's export. Jiangsu Guotai, which is mainly engaged in garment and knitting import and export trade, also said that the company pays close attention to the changes in the international market environment and exchange rate. The moderate depreciation of RMB is conducive to the company's foreign trade export business.
In the short term, the fluctuation of exchange rate has brought certain benefits to foreign trade enterprises, and some foreign traders have also quickly adjusted their foreign exchange locking and pricing to enhance their competitiveness under the severe foreign trade situation.
"I thought it would be around 6.8 for a while, but I didn't expect it to break through 6.9 so soon." Meng Zhuo, manager of a garment foreign trade enterprise in Anhui Province, said that because the RMB exchange rate has dropped significantly recently, they have decided to suspend the operation of locking the exchange rate for all orders at the end of this year.
As the sales director who has always been on the front line, Meng Zhuo frankly said that from the current domestic and foreign markets, the foreign trade situation is not too optimistic. After the suspension of foreign exchange locking for the next orders this year, they plan to lock 30% - 50% of foreign exchange for orders of more than 500000 US dollars from March to April next year.
Zhao Benzhi, director of foreign trade business of Shanghai Puqi textiles, said that due to the small volume of business, the company has not done much in locking foreign exchange. It mainly follows the market, but will consider the trend change of exchange rate when quoting, and relax the relevant agreements a little.
It can be said that exchange rate fluctuations are expected for foreign trade enterprises, and have also become the "normalization" challenge faced by enterprises.
A foreign trade person in the textile industry said that the recent depreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar has had an overall impact on the production and operation of the textile industry in three aspects: for enterprises with a high proportion of export sales, enterprises with more US dollar assets will benefit; Enterprises that purchase upper class raw materials not completely in China and highly rely on imported raw materials, such as imported cotton, cotton yarn and equipment, will be negatively affected; For enterprises with USD foreign debt or long-term foreign exchange settlement, it will affect the expected income of enterprises. For some large enterprises, these three situations coexist, and specific enterprises are affected to varying degrees.
Yao Yu, an analyst at Hua'an futures, believes that due to the depreciation of the renminbi, the purchasing power of foreign consumers for Chinese products will be significantly increased. For China's export enterprises, it may mean receiving more orders. Even if the number of orders received is the same as that in previous years, the operating income of enterprises will also increase. This is also one of the main reasons why China's textile export data is still performing well this year. Of course, the devaluation of RMB has both advantages and disadvantages. For imported goods, it will cost more. Therefore, we can see that the quantity of imported cotton and cotton yarn has decreased recently, which is partly due to the rising cost caused by the depreciation of RMB.
Luo Yucheng, Deputy Secretary General of Jinjiang dyeing and finishing industry association, told reporters that the depreciation of RMB has a positive effect on exports, but it is not appropriate to overestimate its impact. Since most enterprises have previously taken a series of measures to hedge exchange rate risk, such as import hedging, US dollar financing and forward foreign exchange trading, the degree of positive impact on performance should be analyzed in detail. He suggested that textile enterprises should pay close attention to the changes in the international market environment and exchange rate, with a view to obtaining more income, and improve their foreign exchange risk resistance through rational optimization of the foreign currency asset liability structure.
Zhu Yuxing, head of the Information Department of the China Textile Import and Export Chamber of Commerce, said that the current decline of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is mainly due to the short-term fluctuations caused by the rapid strengthening of the US dollar index, which has not formed a strong depreciation expectation, and the short-term pressure on the RMB exchange rate will not change the pattern of long-term stability. The reason why textile and garment export enterprises pay attention to "breaking 7" is more because of the psychological integer barrier.
Zhu Yuxing pointed out that although the devaluation of the local currency is conducive to exports, export textile enterprises still hope that the exchange rate fluctuation is within a stable range. The impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on export textile enterprises is mainly reflected in two aspects, one is foreign exchange settlement, and the other is raw material price. In terms of foreign exchange settlement, generally speaking, the lower the exchange rate, the more favorable it is for exports. However, if the exchange rate drops, the price of overseas orders will also be depressed, and the time of foreign exchange collection is uncertain. If the spot exchange rate at the time of foreign exchange collection fluctuates again, there is a risk that the gain will outweigh the loss. In terms of raw material prices, the low RMB exchange rate is not conducive to imports, leading to the increase in the import prices of cotton, chemical fiber and other raw materials used for production, which will drive up the production costs of export textile enterprises.
Zhu Yuxing said that after years of experience, export textile enterprises have gradually been able to cope with fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate. Both large export textile enterprises and small, medium and micro export textile enterprises have accumulated certain experience in avoiding trade-related exchange rate risk, and their exchange rate risk management ability has been continuously enhanced.
Zhu Yuxing said that at present, there is no need to overemphasize the devaluation of the RMB exchange rate. If the RMB tends to devalue excessively in the future, affecting the national financial security, the central bank will certainly take measures to stabilize the exchange rate. In the long run, moderate two-way fluctuation of RMB exchange rate is normal; Overall, the impact on export textile enterprises is controllable.
Although the current global economic and monetary policy situation is becoming more and more complicated, experts generally say that the RMB is still resilient.
Yang Delong said that the rise and fall of the exchange rate is a double-edged sword for the foreign trade industry. The moderate depreciation and correction of the RMB exchange rate will help improve the competitiveness and price advantage of export trade and promote the recovery of the real economy, but the import cost of import enterprises will increase. In the short term, the US dollar index will continue to strengthen, and the RMB exchange rate may be under pressure. In the medium and long term, the real exchange rate of RMB has strong resilience, and the possibility of a sharp decline is unlikely. In the long run, it is still the economic fundamentals that support the RMB exchange rate. After the economic growth rate stabilizes and rebounds, the RMB may stabilize to some extent. Now, both the government and the market have greatly increased their tolerance and adaptability to two-way fluctuations and wide swings in the exchange rate.
China Merchants Securities pointed out that the dollar will probably continue to be strong until the end of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and the removal of European energy risks. It is expected that the inflection point will be from the end of this year to the beginning of next year. Mingming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, believes that the international balance of payments will be in balance in 2022, and the approximate rate of RMB will still show a fluctuating trend.
In the 135th issue of economic and financial hot spot quick review in 2022, Wu Dan of the Bank of China Research Institute analyzed that in the medium and long term, there is still strong support for the stable RMB exchange rate. First, the stable relationship between foreign exchange supply and demand is the key support for the RMB exchange rate. According to the data of foreign exchange settlement and sales released by the State Administration of foreign exchange on August 15, China's current account surplus in July was 15.978 billion US dollars, a significant rise from June; The trade surplus of goods was 30.692 billion US dollars, an increase of 20.94% over June. The growing current account surplus is conducive to partially offsetting the impact of short-term capital outflows and maintaining the overall stability of the supply-demand relationship in the foreign exchange market. Second, the expectation of RMB foreign exchange settlement and sales is stable. Judging from market expectations, the hawkish interest rate hike of the Federal Reserve has not had any impact on the demand for RMB foreign exchange. On August 29, the spot inquiry volume of US dollar against RMB was US $41.02 billion, 25.76% higher than the average of US $32.617 billion so far this year, and the average spot inquiry volume of US dollar against RMB in the whole August was US $40.193 billion. In general, with the support of various domestic policies, the momentum of domestic economic recovery in the second half of the year is still strong, the balance of international payments is good, the scale of foreign exchange reserves is reasonable and abundant, and the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate in both directions within a reasonable threshold range. Enterprises and the market should also hold the concept of risk neutrality, take actual demand as the guide, and actively seek reasonable hedging of foreign exchange derivatives
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