First, the cost side logic is the recent theme
Since the middle of February, the international oil price center has been moving upward, and the international situation is complicated. Under the background of the tension between Russia and Ukraine, the international oil price has continued to rise and hit new highs. The cost end has become the main logic supporting PTA market, and PTA has risen sharply with crude oil. Last week, news that russia-Ukraine military conflict is expected to turn a corner, superposition the UNITED Arab Emirates called on OPEC+ to accelerate production, international oil prices fell sharply, PTA prices also fell, as of March 14, PTA main 2205 contract closed at 5910 yuan/ton, the daily decline of 2.96%.
This year, the raw material PX of PTA rose significantly with the oil price. Although the new PX production capacity is expected to be nearly 10 million tons this year, it is understood that the production time is mainly concentrated in the third and fourth quarters, and the negative impact on the PX market is limited in the short term. At present, although crude oil price has some correction, short-term geopolitical problems still exist. Crude oil is expected to keep running at a high level under geopolitical instability, PX is also expected to continue to be strong, and PTA cost end may still have certain support.
2. Supply and demand have certain support at present
Since February, under the background of continuous high and strong operation at the cost end, the PTA processing range has been continuously compressed and even negative. Recently, due to the rollback of the cost end, the processing fee has stopped falling and stabilized. As of March 11th, the PTA processing fee is about 64.43 yuan/ton, which is still at a low level. As the processing fee of PTA continues to be compressed, the enthusiasm of enterprises to start work is reduced, so the output also has a significant decline. According to Longzhong Information, the monthly PTA output in February is 4.327,400 tons, 9.9% from the previous month. The average monthly PTA operating rate in February is 77.7%. Overall supply moved down in a narrow range. In the later stage, the PTA processing fee is also at a relatively low level. In the short term, it may still suppress the start of construction, and the supply may still be not high. As of March 11, the domestic PTA operation rate is about 73.4%, and the short-term increase is expected to be limited.
Downstream demand, polyester industry output in February 4.51332 million tons, a sequential decline of 5.66%. Before and after the Spring Festival holiday this year, the polyester operating rate did not significantly decrease compared with previous years, but recovered after the Spring Festival. At present, the polyester operating rate is at a high level. As of March 11, the polyester load is about 89.32%. At present, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is about 68.6%, which is still lower than the same period last year (about 83.17%). It is known that terminal orders are not optimistic, which also leads to unsatisfactory polyester production and marketing. Polyester inventory has been accumulated. The stock days of polyester filament FDY, DTY and POY were 26.5 days, 29 days and 25 days respectively.
At present, high cost and low profit support polyester prices, but high inventory and low demand still inhibit its upward space. Although the current war under tension, export resistance increase, outside the single question delay no signs of improvement, but most downstream weaving factory to maintain the basic operation, mainly manufacture conventional inventory, weaving the future will also save just need replenishment, so short-term polyester still is expected to maintain high load running, but it remains to be alert to end demand not free up conduction cause negative feedback, Market expectations are still cautious trend.
In recent years, due to the steady growth of China's PTA production capacity, self-sufficiency is becoming stronger and stronger, and import dependence is becoming smaller and smaller, basically within 10%. From 2021, the import volume decreases significantly while the export volume increases significantly. The cumulative PTA import volume in 2021 is about 76,500 tons, far lower than the 660,000 tons in 2020, and the cumulative export volume is 2,575,200 tons, significantly higher than the 850,000 tons in 2020, and the import dependence further decreases.
In terms of inventory, according to Longzhong Information, as of March 10, the PTA social inventory was about 4,092,200 tons in the PTA social inventory, up 32,200 tons (0.79%) from the previous week. Downstream polyester needs to be supported but the terminal demand is insufficient. The overall PTA social inventory shows a small increase, but the pace of supply and demand exhaustion slows down.
Three, short-term PTA price or weak collation
At present, PTA price lost the support of the cost end in the correction of crude oil, and followed the decline of crude oil. However, short-term geopolitical problems still exist. Crude oil is expected to keep running at a high level under the geopolitical instability factors, PX is also expected to continue to be strong, and PTA cost end may still have some support. From the perspective of supply and demand, under the background of PTA processing fee being compressed to a low level, the enthusiasm of enterprises to start work is reduced, and the current operating rate is at a low level. It is expected to have a small increase in the short term, but the probability of significant increase is not high. The polyester on the demand side is in high load operation state, but the load of the terminal loom is not high, so we still need to guard against negative feedback caused by the poor upward transmission of the terminal demand, and the future market expectation is still cautious.
Conclusion:
In general, the low labor cost of PTA has become normal at present, and the polyester industry keeps high load under slight profit, which requires certain support, but the terminal demand support is slightly insufficient. Crude oil is expected to run at a high level in the face of geopolitical instability. The RESTART and maintenance of PTA plant coexist, and the overall supply and demand may maintain a small destorage state temporarily. Cost support weakening superimposed supply and demand has a certain support for the time being, the overall PTA is expected to be short-term or weak consolidation, if crude oil rebounds in the later stage, PTA is likely to follow the rise, it is suggested to pay attention to the trend of crude oil price.
First, the cost side logic is the recent theme
Since the middle of February, the international oil price center has been moving upward, and the international situation is complicated. Under the background of the tension between Russia and Ukraine, the international oil price has continued to rise and hit new highs. The cost end has become the main logic supporting PTA market, and PTA has risen sharply with crude oil. Last week, news that russia-Ukraine military conflict is expected to turn a corner, superposition the UNITED Arab Emirates called on OPEC+ to accelerate production, international oil prices fell sharply, PTA prices also fell, as of March 14, PTA main 2205 contract closed at 5910 yuan/ton, the daily decline of 2.96%.
This year, the raw material PX of PTA rose significantly with the oil price. Although the new PX production capacity is expected to be nearly 10 million tons this year, it is understood that the production time is mainly concentrated in the third and fourth quarters, and the negative impact on the PX market is limited in the short term. At present, although crude oil price has some correction, short-term geopolitical problems still exist. Crude oil is expected to keep running at a high level under geopolitical instability, PX is also expected to continue to be strong, and PTA cost end may still have certain support.
2. Supply and demand have certain support at present
Since February, under the background of continuous high and strong operation at the cost end, the PTA processing range has been continuously compressed and even negative. Recently, due to the rollback of the cost end, the processing fee has stopped falling and stabilized. As of March 11th, the PTA processing fee is about 64.43 yuan/ton, which is still at a low level. As the processing fee of PTA continues to be compressed, the enthusiasm of enterprises to start work is reduced, so the output also has a significant decline. According to Longzhong Information, the monthly PTA output in February is 4.327,400 tons, 9.9% from the previous month. The average monthly PTA operating rate in February is 77.7%. Overall supply moved down in a narrow range. In the later stage, the PTA processing fee is also at a relatively low level. In the short term, it may still suppress the start of construction, and the supply may still be not high. As of March 11, the domestic PTA operation rate is about 73.4%, and the short-term increase is expected to be limited.
Downstream demand, polyester industry output in February 4.51332 million tons, a sequential decline of 5.66%. Before and after the Spring Festival holiday this year, the polyester operating rate did not significantly decrease compared with previous years, but recovered after the Spring Festival. At present, the polyester operating rate is at a high level. As of March 11, the polyester load is about 89.32%. At present, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is about 68.6%, which is still lower than the same period last year (about 83.17%). It is known that terminal orders are not optimistic, which also leads to unsatisfactory polyester production and marketing. Polyester inventory has been accumulated. The stock days of polyester filament FDY, DTY and POY were 26.5 days, 29 days and 25 days respectively.
At present, high cost and low profit support polyester prices, but high inventory and low demand still inhibit its upward space. Although the current war under tension, export resistance increase, outside the single question delay no signs of improvement, but most downstream weaving factory to maintain the basic operation, mainly manufacture conventional inventory, weaving the future will also save just need replenishment, so short-term polyester still is expected to maintain high load running, but it remains to be alert to end demand not free up conduction cause negative feedback, Market expectations are still cautious trend.
In recent years, due to the steady growth of China's PTA production capacity, self-sufficiency is becoming stronger and stronger, and import dependence is becoming smaller and smaller, basically within 10%. From 2021, the import volume decreases significantly while the export volume increases significantly. The cumulative PTA import volume in 2021 is about 76,500 tons, far lower than the 660,000 tons in 2020, and the cumulative export volume is 2,575,200 tons, significantly higher than the 850,000 tons in 2020, and the import dependence further decreases.
In terms of inventory, according to Longzhong Information, as of March 10, the PTA social inventory was about 4,092,200 tons in the PTA social inventory, up 32,200 tons (0.79%) from the previous week. Downstream polyester needs to be supported but the terminal demand is insufficient. The overall PTA social inventory shows a small increase, but the pace of supply and demand exhaustion slows down.
Three, short-term PTA price or weak collation
At present, PTA price lost the support of the cost end in the correction of crude oil, and followed the decline of crude oil. However, short-term geopolitical problems still exist. Crude oil is expected to keep running at a high level under the geopolitical instability factors, PX is also expected to continue to be strong, and PTA cost end may still have some support. From the perspective of supply and demand, under the background of PTA processing fee being compressed to a low level, the enthusiasm of enterprises to start work is reduced, and the current operating rate is at a low level. It is expected to have a small increase in the short term, but the probability of significant increase is not high. The polyester on the demand side is in high load operation state, but the load of the terminal loom is not high, so we still need to guard against negative feedback caused by the poor upward transmission of the terminal demand, and the future market expectation is still cautious.
Conclusion:
In general, the low labor cost of PTA has become normal at present, and the polyester industry keeps high load under slight profit, which requires certain support, but the terminal demand support is slightly insufficient. Crude oil is expected to run at a high level in the face of geopolitical instability. The RESTART and maintenance of PTA plant coexist, and the overall supply and demand may maintain a small destorage state temporarily. Cost support weakening superimposed supply and demand has a certain support for the time being, the overall PTA is expected to be short-term or weak consolidation, if crude oil rebounds in the later stage, PTA is likely to follow the rise, it is suggested to pay attention to the trend of crude oil price.
source：
https://www.tnc.com.cn/info/c-001001-d-3719954.html