The Energy Minister of the United Arab Emirates said that OPEC's decision to reduce production was correct and was based on the relationship between supply and demand; The purpose of our decision is to stabilize the oil price, not to increase it. The oil price will remain stable after the OPEC+decision. Any decision we make in OPEC has no political significance. Decisions are always made unanimously, and the final decision is also adopted unanimously. We reaffirm our confidence in OPEC+by reducing production, which we believe is a correct decision.
A person familiar with the matter said on Monday that the Biden administration planned to sell off strategic oil reserves before next month's mid-term congressional elections to lower fuel prices.
A source said that President Biden is expected to announce this statement this week as part of his response to the Russian Ukrainian war. The remaining 14 million barrels of oil previously announced by Biden will be sold this time. The Biden government announced in March this year that an unprecedented 180 million barrels of oil will be dumped from May to October.
Biden said last week that gasoline prices were too high. He will make more anti inflation related remarks this week. David Turk, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Energy, also said last week that the government could use the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as needed in the coming weeks and months to stabilize oil.
-02-
The market tends to be stable and PTA's decline slows down
After returning from the National Day, the PTA market started well on the first day, and then the market fell sharply. The main PTA contract 2301 fell from 5700 yuan to 5350 yuan, a drop of 6.14%; However, the recent weather and epidemic situation have affected transportation and shipping. The spot offer of suppliers has risen cautiously, and the basis has rebounded. At present, the downstream polyester demand has not improved significantly, and just needs to follow up with the purchase. The market trading situation is general.
From the perspective of crude oil: as the market tries to maintain a balance between supply shortage and potential economic slowdown, oil prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term. Although the fear of economic recession prevailed, the oil price faced the risk of rising eventually. UBS Group said on the 17th that it has adjusted its investment position on overall commodities from "most preferred" to "neutral", which means that investors should maintain existing positions rather than add new ones. At the same time, maintain a preference for oil, including a positive position on commodity and energy stocks. It is believed that the supply side challenges in the next few months are likely to be more serious than the slowdown in demand. It is expected that oil prices may rise in the next few months.
From the perspective of the cost side, PX demand is fair because PTA device is stable; From the perspective of supply, four domestic PX units are still under maintenance, supporting the market sentiment, but Shenghong Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. plans to put a new 2 million ton/year PX unit and Weilian Chemical Co., Ltd. Phase II 1 million ton/year PX unit into production. The increase in supply may restrict the market. In addition, the demand for terminal polyester is general. Under the stalemate, the PX market is dominated by shock and consolidation.
From the perspective of its own supply and demand, Fuhaichuang's device has increased its load, while Eason's new material device has reduced its load. On the whole, the current PTA operating rate is 75.32%, and the supply is looser than in the early stage. The 2.5 million ton new unit of Ranwei Lian Chemical is planned to be put into production, and the overall supply of PTA will increase significantly at that time. In the near future, the operating rate of polyester will remain around 83%, and the operating rate of terminal weaving will remain around 73%. However, the situation of new orders is still weak. The polyester factory still has accumulated inventory expectation and maintains losses. The probability of polyester production reduction in the later period is large, and the PTA supply and demand expectation is weak.
To sum up, the fluctuation of crude oil market has formed a certain support for PTA, but based on the expectation that PTA's new devices will be put into production, the supply and demand will gradually weaken. With the gradual drop of temperature, the demand for support of Yinshi is still there, and the potential demand for buying on the low side is still there. In the short term, the decline of PTA market slows down, or gradually stabilizes after the range declines.
souce: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lvi__IcGyk9-BFq1h2E2YA